The India–Nepal Long-Term Power Trade Agreement signed January 2024 commits Nepal to 10,000 MW of electricity export to India in its first decade under a 25-year bilateral framework. Two 400 kV cross-border transmission lines are under construction. Nepal is the only major bulk hydropower export source physically integrated with the Indian grid under a binding bilateral framework — a position no other geography replicates. These are not projections. They are contracted conditions.
Jan 2024India–Nepal LTPTA signed — 25-year framework
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Nepal’s investment case rests on three concurrent foundations — a modern foreign investment statute, the largest contracted bilateral energy framework in South Asian history, and a macroeconomic position that institutional capital has not yet priced.
The Foreign Investment and Technology Transfer Act 2019 establishes a dual-track approval mechanism: the Department of Industry approves foreign investments at or below NPR 6 billion; the Investment Board Nepal approves investments above. Section 15(2) mandates a seven-day statutory approval timeline once application is complete. A One Stop Service Centre provides integrated registration, licensing, visa and labour permits. Profit, dividend, royalty, and divestment-proceed repatriation is statutorily protected. The framework has not yet been fully priced into Western institutional capital flows.
The Long-Term Power Trade Agreement commits Nepal to 10,000 MW of electricity export to India over its first decade under a 25-year bilateral framework. Two 400 kV cross-border transmission lines — Dododhara–Bareilly and Inaruwa–Purnea — are under construction under the April 2025 NEA / PowerGrid MoU. Nepal Electricity Authority’s stated 2035 target is 28,500 MW of installed generation and 15,000 MW of export capacity. The framework compels engagement — it does not merely recommend it.
GDP approximately $44 billion in 2024 per World Bank. Gross international reserves at the strongest position in Nepal’s monetary history, equivalent to approximately ten months of prospective imports per IMF data — well above standard emerging-market benchmarks. Worker remittances reached approximately 28.2% of GDP in FY 2024/25 per Nepal Rastra Bank. The active IMF Extended Credit Facility programme anchors the macroeconomic and structural reform framework.
Nepal co-anchors the South Asian energy transition through contracted hydropower export to India. The correct reading is not the LTPTA document in isolation — it is the operational window the framework forces open simultaneously across generation, transmission, and the premium Himalayan adventure tier
Generation: 42,000 MW economically feasible against under 4,000 MW currently installed (Govt of Nepal / WECS). 10,000 MW first-decade LTPTA export commitment. Arun-3 — 900 MW under SJVN with an IBN Project Development Agreement, with associated 217 km cross-border 400 kV transmission — is operational evidence the framework produces contracted, financed, under-construction assets at scale. Transmission: Two 400 kV cross-border lines under construction under the April 2025 NEA / PowerGrid MoU. Brand: Mt Everest spring royalty raised to $15,000 in September 2025, the first increase in a decade, +36%. Premium tier underbuilt against 1.15M 2025 arrivals.
Every private-sector operator building a Nepal position ahead of 2034 does so with the demand signal already confirmed by binding bilateral framework. The window to establish platform positions is 2025 to 2027.
LTPTA first-decade export target · 2024–2034
Currently installed generation capacity
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